torsdag 21 februari 2008
Portföljtänkande vs. fokusinvestering
Att inte ha alla ägg i samma korg och att sprida sina risker är någon man brukar få inpräntat hårt från såväl banker, duktiga investerare och privatekonomer. Dels handlar det om att ha en bra diversifiering på sitt sparande mellan räntebärande, reala investeringar (tex. din bostad även om detta kanske inte skall räknas som en investering utan mer kapitalbevarande) och aktier. Givetvis kan man också ha investerade pengar i andra typer av investeringar som vindkraftandelar, fastighetsinvesteringar och kanske ett eget företag. Likaså bör man hålla en hög soliditet i sina investeringar så att inte privatekonomin riskerar raseras av att inkomsten eller kassaflödet under en period blir lägre och därmed kanske räntor till ett för stort lån kan bli problematiska och givetvis en bra buffert för oväntade utgifter så man inte behöver sälja tillgångar för den där drömsemestern eller den nya lyx diskmaskinen.
I teorin är riskspridning bland investeringar något mycket dåligt istället borde man fokusera sina investeringsbara medel till där man får mest i avkastning precis på samma sätt som ett företag koncentrerar sina investeringar till där man får bäst utväxling på pengarna. Mao borde man identifiera den att allra bästa investeringen och där investera alla pengarna. I praktiken lär man sig dock ofta att detta är en förhållandevis farlig strategi om utväxlingen på investeringen inte blir den man tänkt sig och att man sitter med all risk i ett företag. Men för en duktig placerare eller för den delen en entreprenörs egna företag är detta helt klart mer lönsamt framför att sprida ut sina investeringar.
Studerar man den svenska aktieägarstatistiken är det uppenbart att många svenska aktieägare de senaste åren haft ganska magra resultat när det gäller aktiesparande där ungefär hälften äger aktier i ett enda bolag och många gånger då i bolag som Ericsson, TeliaSonera eller SEB som alla tillhör svenska folkets allra populäraste aktieval. Ung hälften av svenska VPC registrerade aktieägare tillämpar i sina aktieinvesteringar mao en mycket stor fokus investering genom att bara äga aktier i ett enda bolag. Medel antalet aktieinnehav som svenska aktiesparare har i snitt ligger på ca. 2,5 olika aktier vilket betyder att halvan av befolkningen som inte enbart äger en aktie ofta har en bättre riskspridning.
Själv är jag kluven till förhållandet mellan fokusinvesteringar med ”all-in” tänkande i förhållande till mina egna investeraringar. Själv är jag egentligen en förespråkare för ganska fokuserade fåtal investeringar framför att sprida ut investeringarna samtidigt är mina egna investeringar väldiversifierade då aktieportföljen inte utgör alla besparingar som man kanske kan tro när man läser denna blogg och att aktieportföljen i sig är enligt mig synnerligen riskspridd på tio olika innehav varav tre investmentbolag inget innehav är heller markant större än resten. Mao tillämpar jag i praktiken en form av portföljtänkande i mina investeringar. Frågan är nu om detta är bra eller dåligt i praktiken, som jag skrev innan så är det i teorin dåligt då man borde koncentrera sina investeringar till den förmodat bästa investeringen.
Personligen är jag dock övertygad om att en väldiversifierad aktieportfölje med som i mitt fall tio olika innehav om än kanske inte kan ge den bästa avkastningen så kan portföljen i alla fall en portfölje ge mycket god avkastning såväl absolut som relativt och därmed uppfylla syftet jag har med aktieägande. Däremot tycker jag inte att man som mindre privatsparare bör eftersträva en mycket väldiversifierad aktieportfölj med fler än 20 olika innehav nackdelen som jag ser med detta är att det blir högre förvaltningskostnader, svårare med informationsinhämtning osv. Mitt råd är att man koncentrerar sig till mellan 5 och 10 olika innehav och gärna då något eller några investmentbolag som är ypperliga placeringar på lång sikt för de flesta aktieägare. Denna mix ger enligt mig en bra avvägning mellan fokusinvesteringar och portföljtänkande. Portföljen bör självfallet byggas upp under en tid om man idag kanske inte äger en endaste aktie men när man har nått upp i önskat antal innehav handlar det sedan om att konsekvent och metodiskt öka ägarandelen i respektive företag genom nysparande och återinvesterade aktieutdelningar med tiden ger detta förhoppningsvis en bra avkastning och utväxling på investerade pengar. Risktänkandet bör enligt mig istället bygga på att man inte har alla pengar investerade i aktier och inte för stora lån.
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Här har du diversifiering: http://www.affarsvarlden.se/art/204915
SvaraRadera:)
Läste den artikeln också i tidningen. Länsförsäkringar Liv har de senaste åren gjort ett mycket bra jobb med ränteförvalnting och aktier i tillväxtmarknader enda plumpen i protokollet har varit just svenska aktier och då är det i alal fall enligt mig ganska logiskt att man lägger ned sin förvalnting och övergår helt och hållet till indexförvaltning.
SvaraRaderaMen vilket livbolag blir först med att sälja alla svenska aktier och investera alla pengar i en investmentbolagsportfölj? Rabatterade väldiversifierade investmentbolag slår index med någon procent om året på lång sikt med stor säkerhet...
plankat från placera.nu om en annan synnerligen klok synpunkt.
"Det är viktigare att förstå en placering än att diversifiera, på den punkten skiljer jag mig från många andra i min syn på vad som är viktigt", säger Mats Guldbrand.
Guldbrand förelsog idag till styelsen i Lundbergs...
Det blir ganska konstigt att förespråka 10 bolag i en portfölj och samtidigt äga 3 investmentbolag som gör din direkt+indirekta innehav till säkert minst 30-40 bolag.
SvaraRaderaMin portfölj är långt större än 10 bolag och detta är något jag tidigare har diskuterat på aktiespararnas forum. Jag är dock av åsikten att du omöjligen kan diversifiera tillräckligt på 10 bolag om du även räknar in valutariskerna. Jag äger i dagsläget enbart aktier i fyra valutor (dollar, kan dollar, euro, SEK) men jag finner detta egentligen för lite och spanar konstant på bra bolag i nya marknader. Svårt att hålla koll på? Ja, självklart. Stabila utländska bolag som ex. A/P möller Mearsk/ E.ON/Bank of America behöver du kanske inte hålla stenkoll på?
En annan aspekt på det är att många svenska bolag är dollarberoende och du på så sätt är omvärldsberoende men jag tycker inte riktigt det håller, det finns för många andra valutor. Egentligen borde man ha 50%+ i utländska investeringar för en hyfsad valutasäkring, men det är svårt jag vet.
Som en medlem i unga aktiespararna får jag månadsspara även i utländska aktier courtagefritt genom andelsköp och jag har utnyttjat detta i fallet E.ON (de har en mängd olika aktier att erbjuda genom andelsorder). Något som tål att övervägas för oss upp till 28 år(?), andra betalar ett courtage på 1.3%(?) vilket dock inte gör att det inte är värt att överväga.
vilket investmentbolag tror du mest på i dagsläget?
SvaraRaderaOm man har runt tio svenska storbolagsaktier varav ett par, tre investmentbolag sa kommer sannolikt din genomsnittliga avkastning skilja sig relativt marginellt mot OMX30. Detta beror sjalvfallet pa distributionen mellan dina innehav etc, men jag skulle forvanas om den sammanlagda avkastningen skiljer sig mer an ett par procent upp eller ner sett over ett langre tidsperspektiv.
SvaraRaderaMan kan dra tva slutsatser av detta. Antingen vill man ha en valdiversifierad portfolj som Cristoffer med en forvantad avkastning som bor motsvara omx. Da kan man overvaga en billig indexfond istallet, t ex Avanza Zero eller for den mer vaghalsige XACT Bull som ger en havstang pa 1.5ggr. Mindre jobb att folja samt lagre transaktionskostnader i fallet Avanza Zero for samma resultat (men lite trakigare). Eller, sa vill man forsoka sla index vilket endast ar fa forunnat under en langre period. Da maste man som du skrev fokusera pa enskilda aktier, branscher, smabolag, etc.
For manga kanske en kombination passar; en storre andel indexfond for omx-exponeringen, samt nagra koncentrerade innehav for att forsoka hitta alpha.
En annan aspekt som Jeppe rorde vid: Aven om manga svenska borsbolag ar tamligen internationella, sa visar historien att stockholmsborsen hor till de mer volatila. En internationell diversifiering borde darfor vara logiskt for de flesta. Personligen skulle jag ha svart att motivera mer an 30% i svenska innehav. For den inaktive "indexfoljaren" valjer man lampligen fonder for utlandsandelen, medans den mer erfarna risktagaren i dagslaget till rimlig kostnad kan direktinvestera i manga utlandska borser via Nordnet, Avanza, etc.
Jeppe: Ang. att ha massor av bolag i portföljen, i en massa valutor och branscher, så diversifierade som man bara kan. Är det inte så man slutar som just "alla andra", och aktieplaceringar blir bara ett tidsfördriv?
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